Simplifying Bayesian Inference
نویسندگان
چکیده
Kahneman and Tversky (1972) affirmed: “In his evaluation of evidence, man is not Bayesian at all.“ In their book Judgment under uncertainty (1982), they attempted to prove that human judgment is riddled with systematic deviations from the logical and probabilistic norm. In chapter 18 of the same book David M. Eddy stressed that medical doctors do not follow Bayes’formula when solving the following task:
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تاریخ انتشار 2000